为什么发展中国家更愿意向中国而不是世界银行或者IMF申请贷款?

今涛拍案 2022-01-21 21:20:58

海外论坛Quora最近在讨论中国的全球影响力,一位网友问道:为什么非洲、亚洲的发展中国家更愿意向中国而不是世界银行或者国际货币基金组织申请贷款?他们是被中国控制住了吗?经济学家认为这种观点无知又可笑,发文解答了这个问题。

即使利率更高一些为什么非洲、亚洲的发展中国家更愿意向中国而不是世界银行或者国际货币基金组织申请贷款?

On the face of it, interest rates on Chinese loans are typically around 1-2% with a five year grace period and a term of up to 20 years. The World Bank offers loans to developing countries at a fixed interest rate of 1.54%, with a grace period of 10 years and a maturity of 40 years.

从各个贫困国家的贷款合同数据看来,中国贷款利率通常在1-2%左右,宽限期为5年,期限最长为20年。世界银行则以1.54%的固定利率向发展中国家提供贷款,宽限期为10年,期限最长为40年。

But this has to be seen in the aggregate. China's foreign loans are generally for infrastructure, and these infrastructure projects are usually arranged for Chinese companies to carry out.

从表面看可能中国提供贷款的利率会稍微高一点,但从总体上来说,还是和中国合作比较划算。因为中国的对外贷款通常用于基础设施,这些基础设施项目通常由中国企业实施建设。

中非合作铁路

Here an interesting thing arises, because Chinese companies build efficiently and quickly, so the result is lower construction costs.

这就很有意思了,因为中国公司的建设效率高、速度快,因此其结果是建设成本大大降低。

For example, for the same railway, if China goes to build it, the price might be US$50 million per kilometre, whereas if Japan goes to build it, the price might be US$100 million. If Europe were to build it, it might cost US$200 million.

例如,同样建设一条铁路,如果由中国建造,价格可能是每公里5000万美元,而如果让日本建造,价格可能是1亿美元,如果欧美建造它,可能需要2亿美元。

So let's think about it, if it's a railway like this and it's built for 200 kilometres. To get a loan from China, it would only cost US$10 billion. Get a loan from Japan, it would cost US$20 billion. And to get a loan from Europe, it would cost US$ 40 billion.

你想想,如果一个非洲国家想建一条200公里的铁路,从中国申请贷款只需要100亿美元,如果向日本申请,则需要200亿美元,欧美国家更多,需要400亿美元。

Well, here's the question. Do you think it is better to ask China for a loan of US$10 billion? Or is it better to borrow US$20 billion from Japan? Or would it be better to borrow US$40 billion from Europe?

好吧,问题来了。你认为向中国申请100亿美元的贷款好还是向日本借200亿美元更好?甚至向欧美国家借400亿美元更好?

It is possible that a project that can be built by a Chinese company in 3 years will take 5 years in Japan and 10 years in Europe. This construction time is well documented.This does not include the time taken to build the project.

而且根据以往的项目经验,各个国家的建设周期差距比较大,中国公司在3年内建成的项目可能在日本需要5年,在欧洲则需要10年。而且这还不包括前期项目规划所需的时间,许多贫困国家没少吃这方面的亏。

Think about it, borrow $100 from China and then in 3 years you can start to have income and repay the loan.

想想看,从中国借了100亿美元,3年后就可以开始有收入并偿还贷款了。

Borrow $20 billion from Japan and then in 5 years you can start to have income and repay the loan.

从日本借了200亿美元,5年后开始有收入并偿还贷款。

Borrow $40 billion from Europe and then in 10 years you can start to have an income and repay the loan.

从欧美借400亿美元,10年后你才可以开始有收入并偿还贷款,到那时候,不知道国内政局又变成什么鬼样子。

Even if the interest rates in China were twice as high, it would still be more cost effective.

所以,就算中国的利率是现在的两倍,它仍然更具成本效益。这也是诸多发展中国家更愿意申请中国国家贷款的原因。

In addition, there is a more important reason, that is, applying for loans from the world bank or the International Monetary Fund often carries great hidden conditions.

除此之外,还有一个更重要的原因,那就是向世界银行或者国际货币基金组织申请贷款往往附加着极大的隐形条件。

A true story from Indonesia.

下面讲一个印度尼西亚的故事。

In 1997, Indonesia fell into a serious currency crisis and had to apply for a loan from the International Monetary Fund to tide over the difficulties. At that time, Indonesian aircraft manufacturer Indonesian aircraft industry company was developing the first domestic passenger aircraft. At that time, N250 was launched as the first prototype and took off successfully. At the same time, it obtained a number of qualification certificates from the aviation administration.

1997年,印度尼西亚陷入了严重的货币危机,不得不向国际货币基金组织申请贷款渡过难关,当时印尼飞机制造商印尼飞机工业公司正在研发首款国产运输飞机,当年,N250作为第一架原型机推出展览,并成功起飞,同时获得了航空局的多项资质认证。

N25运输机

Just then, the International Monetary Fund told President Suharto to cancel the N250 project immediately, otherwise the loan would not be approved. At that time, Indonesia was helpless. The Indonesian government had to forcibly terminate the project and asked Indonesian Aircraft Industry Corporation to dissolve the R & D team of the project. Later, many R & D personnel of the team went away to other countries.

就在这时,国际货币基金组织告诉总统苏哈托,立刻取消N250项目,否则贷款不予批准。当时的印尼孤立无援,印尼政府不得不强制终止了该项目,要求印尼飞机工业公司解散该项目的研发团队,后来这个团队的许多研发人员远走他国。

Later, the International Monetary Fund intensified and even asked the Bank of Indonesia to stop providing funds to the Indonesian aircraft industry company. However, the Indonesian government did not fully comply with the requirements of the International Monetary Fund. Since then, the company's funds have been greatly reduced, and it had to turn to diversified operation in order to survive under the minimum budget support of the government.

后来,国际货币基金组织变本加厉,甚至要求印尼银行停止为印尼飞机工业公司提供资金,但印尼政府并没有完全遵守国际货币基金组织的要求,但从此该公司资金大幅减少,其不得不转为多元化经营,以便在政府最低预算支持下生存。

Later, many people behind the scenes said that the reason why the national monetary fund pressed the Indonesian government to terminate the N250 project was that it had reached an agreement with European and American aircraft manufacturers. These aircraft manufacturers did not want Indonesia to produce and manufacture their own aircraft, because if Indonesian aircraft were localized, it would not only lose the Indonesian market, but also cause collateral effects, If other countries with R & D capabilities invest in the manufacturing of domestic aircraft, it will be a fatal blow to European and American aircraft manufacturers such as Boeing and Airbus.

后来,许多幕后人士表示,国家货币基金组织施压印尼政府终止N250项目是因为与欧美飞机制造商达成了某项协议,这些飞机制造商不希望印尼自己生产制造飞机,因为如果印尼飞机国产化,他们不仅会失去印尼市场,还会引发连带效应,如果其他有研发能力的国家都投入国产飞机的制造,那将对波音、空客等欧美飞机制造商造成致命打击。

As the saying goes, people are short mouthed and soft handed. Lending countries often add additional conditions or even exert pressure on lending countries to achieve their ulterior goals. Economic cooperation with China is often mutually beneficial and win-win. China has never used economic means to force some developing countries to do things they are unwilling to do, whether political, diplomatic or internal policies, China is a country that truly achieves "reaching the goal and benefiting the world".

俗话说吃人嘴短,拿人手软,出借国往往会向借贷国添加附加条件甚至施加压力来达成他们不可告人的目的,而与中国的经济合作往往是互利共赢的,中国从来不会运用经济手段强迫某些发展中国家做他们不愿意做的事情,无论是政治外交还是内部政策,中国是真正做到“达则兼济天下”的国家。

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